Moana 2is projected to have a record-breaking opening weekend. TheupcomingMoana 2is a feature-length sequel that was originally developed as a Disney+ limited series. Featuring music by Mark Mancina, Opetaia Foaʻi, Abigail Barlow, and Emily Bear, the animated movie musical features the return of Auliʻi Cravalho as Moana and Dwayne Johnson as the demigod Maui in a new adventure taking place three years after the original 2016 movie.
PerDeadline, early box office projections from Quorum are showing thatMoana 2, which opens the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, isset for a 3-day Friday-to-Sunday domestic debut gross of $75 to $82 million witha 5-day gross of more than $100 million. This would be the best opening ever for a Thanksgiving week Wednesday release, beating out 2013’sFrozen, which made $93.5 million.
However, this 3-day range alone isenough for it to be the best Thanksgiving weekend debut of 2024, beating out the current projections for the Universal musicalWicked($67 to $74 million) and Ridley Scott’s belated historical epic sequelGladiator II($42 to $47 million), both of which are opening that Friday.
What The Moana 2 Box Office Means For Disney
The Studio’s Box Office Slump May Be Over
This titanic projected gross forMoana 2, which easily bests the original movie’s 3-day total of $56.6 million, could provide a huge comeback forDisney animated movies.Recent installments in the Disney canon have suffered at the box officesince 2019’sFrozen IIbroke records, becoming the highest-grossing animated movie of all time (though it has since been usurped by Pixar’sInside Out 2). See the box office data for Disney’s post-Frozen IIreleases below:
Raya and the Last Dragon(2021)
~$100 million
$8.5 million
$130.4 million
~$135 million
$27.2 million
$256.8 million
~$160 million
$12.1 million
$73.6 million
~$185 million
$19.7 million
$255 million
Because movies typically need to earn back two and a half times their budgets in theaters in order to earn a profit, it seemslikely that none of the four movies that followedFrozen IIbroke even in theaters, whileStrange Worldfailed to even make its budget back in the raw numbers. The reason for this underperformance is likely the lingering effects of the pandemic as well as poor word of mouth forWish, which earned a 48% score on Rotten Tomatoes. However,Moana 2may reverse this trend with a debut that could more than tripleEncanto’s opening.
Our Take On The Moana 2 Box Office Projections
This Could Be The Start Of A New Era For Disney
While the four early 2020s disappointments were original titles, the other factors involved mean that their originality likely was not the problem, especially considering the fact thatEncantoconnected with a huge audience once it hit streaming. However, the projected success ofMoana 2is likely still the case because it is the sequel to a hit movie.Its debut could usher in a new era of commercial success for the company, as theupcoming Disney moviesthat are already scheduled are all sequels, includingZootopia 2andFrozen III.
Moana 2
Cast
Moana 2 is the sequel to the 2016 animated film Moana. Directed by David G. Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, the film continues the journey of Moana as she embarks on new adventures, exploring the vast Pacific Ocean while encountering new characters and challenges along the way.
