UPDATE: 2025-08-06 08:03 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Mufasa Comes In Below $24M Projections By A Hair, Still Takes No. 1

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

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Mufasa: The Lion Kinghas finally triumphed overSonic the Hedgehog 3. The former is the photorealistic CG-animated prequel to the 2019 remakeThe Lion Kingwhile the latter is the third installment in the live-action franchise adapting the long-running video game series. TheMufasareleasekicked off the weekend before Christmas, debuting oppositeSonicand falling behind it at No. 2 on the domestic chart for two consecutive weekends. However, it slowly closed the gap, claiming No. 1 on the daily chart on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, and New Year’s Day, as well as other individual days in between.

PerDeadline, as of Sunday morning, the box office projections for the movies' mutual third weekend showMufasa: The Lion Kingtaking in a 3-day total of$23.8 million. Meanwhile,Sonic the Hedgehog 3is only projected to make $20.7 million, meaning thatMufasahas finally claimed the No. 1 spot on the domestic chartfor the first time. It has accomplished this by maintaining a much stronger hold thanSonicafter leaping up in its second weekend with a 3.9% week-on-week rise as opposed toSonic’s 38.4% drop. Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend:

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1

$23.8 million

$168.6 million (weekend 3)

2

Sonic the Hedgehog 3

$20.7 million

$187 million (weekend 3)

3

$13.2 million

$69.4 million (weekend 2)

4

$12.4 million

$425.2 million (weekend 6)

5

$10.2 million

$450.7 million (weekend 7)

While the Top 5 titles are the same as the previous weekend,Nosferatuwas the only holdover title to stay in exactly the same position on the chartthanks to a $13.2 million haul that leaves it with a week-on-week drop of just 39%. This is a stellar result for a horror movie, as the genre typically has week 2 drops of 50% or more.Director Robert Eggershas made a habit of bucking this trend, as 2015’sThe Witch, his previous horror title to open in wide release, only had a week 2 drop of 42.4%.

Moana 2andWicked, meanwhile, have followed the lead ofSonic the Hedgehog 3andMufasa: The Lion King, swapping positions on the chart. The Disney sequel rose from No. 5 to No. 4 with a 3-day gross of $12.4 million seeing it drop a narrow 34% from the holiday weekend. Universal’s musical adaptation grossed $10.2 million at a slightly harsher drop of 48%, falling from No. 4 to No. 5. Current projections for the latter see it legging out to an overall domestic total of $475 million,cementing its status as the highest-grossing Broadway musical adaptation of all time.

Wickedbecame the highest-grossing domestic Broadway adaptation by surpassing 1978’sGrease($190 million), later doing the same worldwide by outgrossing 2008’sMamma Mia!($610 million).

The remainder of the Top 10 looks exactly the same, lacking any of the lively movement of the weekend’s Top 5. This sees the new releasesA Complete Unknown,Babygirl, andThe Fire Insidemaintaining their positions at No. 6, No. 7, and No. 10 respectively, sandwichingGladiator IIat No. 8 in its seventh weekend andHomesteadat No. 9 in its third. They have all dropped between 31% and 39% exceptBabygirl, which actuallyrose 3% after adding 49 theaters.

What This Means For Mufasa: The Lion King

The Movie’s Success Is Slow And Steady

This late-breaking No. 1 weekend is a huge boon after the disappointingMufasa: The Lion Kingopening weekend.The movie debuted significantly below expectationswith a $35.4 million domestic haul, which paled in comparison to the original 2019 movie’s dazzling $191.8 million opening weekend. While the previous installment made $1.662 billion worldwide by the end of its run, this lukewarm debut for its prequel likely means that it will not even pass the billion-dollar milestone.

Holiday season releases [tend] to show slow and steady growth through the New Year.

However, the outstanding hold that theMufasa: The Lion Kingbox officehas managed to pull off in its subsequent two weekends likely means that it will still be a success in theaters. The movie’s $150 million budget means thatits break-even point is likely somewhere around $375 million worldwide, a milestone that it will easily clear by the end of the weekend. It remains to be seen how high it can climb, but so far it is taking advantage of the common habit of holiday season releases to show slow and steady growth through the New Year.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Next Weekend Could Shake Things Up

So far, the chart has been dominated byMufasa: The LIon Kingand theSonic the Hedgehog 3releaseover the past three weeks. This has been the case because Christmas Day saw the debuts of adult-oriented awards season fare that couldn’t compete with the blockbusters, while no new wide releases premiered the following weekend. However, both titles could see their first spark of 2025 competition from the debut ofDen of Thieves: Panteraduring their fourth weekend, which may not take No. 1 but could drive a wedge betweenMufasaandSonic, widening the gap between them even more.

Mufasa: The Lion King

Cast

Mufasa: The Lion King explores the origins of the beloved character Mufasa, focusing on his youth as a lost cub who encounters Taka, a royal heir. Their meeting initiates an epic journey of self-discovery and destiny, featuring a group of misfit companions navigating the challenges of their world.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 reunites Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails as they face a formidable new adversary, Shadow. With Shadow’s unprecedented powers posing a significant threat, Team Sonic seeks an unexpected alliance to thwart his plans and safeguard the planet.