UPDATE: 2025-06-09 08:06 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Wicked And Gladiator II Fall Slightly Short Of Projections, But The Musical Is Still A Record-Breaker
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.
The box office competition betweenGladiator IIandWickedhas seen the latter title take an early lead in their mutual opening weekend.Gladiator II, which stars Paul Mescal, is the 24-years-later sequel to the Ridley Scott Best Picture winner which sees the director returning to the helm for another Ancient Rome epic. It has debuted at the box office during the same weekend as theWickedrelease. The competition between the swords-and-sandals movie and the adaptation of the first act of the popular musical prequel toThe Wizard of Ozwas dubbed “Glicked” in a nod to 2023’s “Barbenheimer.”
PerDeadline, as of Sunday morning,Wickedhas taken a secure lead overGladiator IIwith a projected 3-day domestic debut of$114 million. In addition to being the third-best opening weekend of the year, it is the best-ever debut for a Broadway adaptation, more than three and a half times the previous record holder, which was 2014’sInto the Woodswith $31 million. It is also the fourth-best opening weekend for a musical in general, beating the more pessimistic projections that it would have a front loaded weekend leading to a 3-day total under $100 million.
Meanwhile,Gladiator IIis projected to have an opening weekend of$55.5 million, which is nearly $5 million less than its initial projections and just under half ofWicked’s debut. A quieter new release has also joined the chart, with Angel Studios’Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin.landing at No. 4 with a $5.1 million debut. This is about par for a release from the faith-based studio, which has only scored one major hit with the 2023 Jim Caviezel vehicleSound of Freedom. Below,seethe full Top 5 chart for the domestic box officethis weekend:
1
$114 million
$114 million (weekend 1)
2
$55.5 million
$55.5 million (weekend 1)
3
$13.3 million
$52 million (weekend 2)
4
$5.1 million
$5.1 million (weekend 1)
5
$4 million
$133 million (weekend 5)
Last weekend’s No. 1 movieRed Onewas always going to be batted down to No. 3 by the two incoming blockbusters, butits $13.3 million gross in its second weekend sees it dropping a harsh 59%. With three new releases joining the chart ahead of Thanksgiving, there has also been a mass exodus of holdover titles. This includes bothHereticandThe Best Christmas Pageant Ever, falling from No. 3 and No. 4 during their third weekend in theaters.
TheWild Robotreleasehas also been pushed from last weekend’s No. 5 position. Although the slow-and-steady hitclung to a spot in the Top 5 for eight consecutive weekends, its streak seems to have finally ended, considering the massive blockbusters with which it is now competing moving forward. All together, the weekend’s movies have grossed $205 million, marking the best pre-Thanksgiving weekend since before the pandemic, whenThe Hunger Games: Catching Firedebuted in 2013 and led the charge for a $226.5 million weekend.
What This Means For Wicked And Gladiator II
Both Movies Are On Track For Big Success
So far, both movies are on solid footing.Gladiator II’s debut will earn one and a half times the $34.8 million debut of the original, whileWickedis a record-breaker. However, both have a long way to climb, as movies typically need to earn back two-and-a-half times their budget in order to break even. Given the roughly $150 millionWickedbudgetand the even biggerGladiator IIbudget, estimated between $210 and $250 million,the former likely needs to earn at least $375 million while the latter will probably have to hit $575 million or more.
Wickedhas had a massive advertising push, including multiple brand partnerships, which could raise its break-even point even more.
Considering the fact that international grosses have not yet been factored in for its opening weekend,Wickedseems on track to hit that break-even point. In fact, it could become one of the highest-grossing musicals of all time, as the best-performing stage musical adaptation is currentlyMamma Mia!($609.8 million), which only had a $27.7 million debut. TheGladiator IIreleasemay have a tougher time of it, with such a high budget. However, if it maintains its trajectory relative to the original movie, it could very well gross more than$740 millionworldwide by the end of its run.
Our Take On The Glicked Opening Weekend
The Competition Is Far From Over
Gladiator IIcould have a slow-and-steady rise that sees it continuously closing the gap between it and its competitor. However,Wickedseems to be on track for a record-breaking run, as the only other movie musicals to debut above $100 million were 2018’sBeauty and the Beastand 2019’sThe Lion King, which both grossed over $1 billion worldwide. Those were Disney properties, though, and Disney has theupcomingMoana 2debuting midweek, potentially stealing focus, so it remains to be seen which Glicked contender is the victor at the end of the day.
Wicked
Cast
Wicked adapts the Broadway musical into a two-part film, following the unlikely friendship between Elphaba, born with green skin, and Glinda, a popular aristocrat, in the Land of Oz. As they navigate their contrasting paths, they evolve into Glinda the Good and the Wicked Witch of the West.
Gladiator II
Gladiator 2 is the follow-up to Ridley Scott’s award-winning film Gladiator from 2000. Scott returns to direct the sequel, with Paul Mescal staring as Lucius, alongside Denzel Washington and Joseph Quinn as the villain Emperor Geta. Gladiator 2 had been stuck in development hell for years before a script written by David Scarpa finally moved forward.
