The shocking results of the 2025Oscarsreveal that the most unpredictable category is Best Actress in a Leading Role. The 97th ceremony proved to bethe best Oscars ceremony in many years, due to the excellent performances from the likes of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, the recognition of technical categories, and Conan O’Brien’s hilarious and powerful hosting skills.Anorawas the biggest winner of the night, winning five Academy Awards out of six nominations, including Best Picture and Best Directing (Sean Baker).
AmongAnora’saccolades,Mikey Madison won the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Rolefor her performance as Anora Mikheeva; at the age of 25,Madison became the ninth-youngest winner of the Best Actress award in history.In herOscars acceptance speech, Madison admitted her shockat her win and called it “a huge honor” and “a dream come true.” Madison’s Best Actress win is considered one of thebiggest surprises of the 2025 Oscarsand makes it the second year in a row that this category has seen an unexpected win.

The Last Two Oscars Have Delivered Huge Surprises With The Best Actress Winners
Mikey Madison Won Best Actress Over Favorite Contender, Demi Moore
Demi Moore received her first Best Actress Oscar nomination for her performance in the body horror movieThe Substance,which is considered by many to be the best movie of her career. Moore won many awards, including the Golden Globe for Best Actress, the Critics' Choice Award, and the Saturn Award, for her performance as an aging celebrity trying to recapture her youth. Many considered Moore the favorite to win the Oscar, so her loss to Mikey Madison came as a big surprise. A similar event took place last year when the Best Actress winner was announced at the 96th ceremony.
Best Picture Winner Anora’s Streaming Release Date Revealed - Here’s When & Where You Can Watch The Record Breaking Oscar Winner
Anora won big at the Oscars by taking home the award for Best Picture, and now the streaming release date for the movie has been revealed.
In 2024, Emma Stone won her second Oscar for her role as Bella Baxter in the Yorgos Lanthimos movie,Poor Things. Stone’s win was very surprising, considering the favorite to win was Lily Gladstone, whose performance was seen by Martin Scorsese asthe heart ofKillers of the Flower Moon. Gladstone is the first Indigenous American to receive an Oscar nomination for Best Actress and many considered herloss to Emma Stone “a big misfire” in Oscars' history. Thus, Madison’s win over Moore marks the second year in a row the Oscars have delivered a surprise in the Best Actress category.

Emma Stone & Mikey Madison’s Upset Wins In Best Actress Have One Win In Common
Both Stone & Madison Won BAFTAs, While Moore & Gladstone Won SAGs
In the lead-up to the Oscars ceremony,it was clear that Madison and Moore were the frontrunners to win the Best Actress award.Moore looked to be the initial Oscar winner after she took home the SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice awards. However,despite losing three awards, Madison’s chances at Oscar successdrastically increased in the weeks before the ceremony after she beat out Moore for both the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award.Therefore, Madison’s surprise win at the Oscars has another thing in common with Emma Stone’s success the previous year.
The similar and unexpected results of the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, SAGs, and Critics' Choice Awards over the last two years set the tone for the Oscars ceremony, representing some indicators of how to predict who will win next year.

Both Madison and Stone won BAFTAs for their performances inAnoraandPoor Thingsrespectively. Among her other accolades, Stone also won the Critics' Choice Award and the Golden Globe for playing Bella Baxter. Similarly, their respective Oscar competitors, Moore and Lily Gladstone, both won at the SAG Awards forThe SubstanceandKillers of the Flower Moon.The similar and unexpected results of the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, SAGs, and Critics' Choice Awards over the last two years set the tone for theOscarsceremony, representing some indicators of how to predict who will win next year.